Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in new Electoral-cycle model

The Electoral-cycle model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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