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Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Time-for-change model

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The Time-for-change model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. Compared to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 4.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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