Primary model: Trump with small lead

The Primary model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 47.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 52.5%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. Compared to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 6.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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