Susquehanna published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Susquehanna poll results
The results show that 47.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 31 to August 4 among 772 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 55.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Susquehanna poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.