Franklin & Marshall released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
The results show that 49.0% of respondents would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between July 29 and August 2. The sample size was 389 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-6.3 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 56.3% for Clinton and 43.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 55.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.