Suffolk University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Suffolk University poll results
Of those who answered the question, 50.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 25 to July 27, among a random sample of 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.2%. Compared to her numbers in the Suffolk University poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.