Results of a new poll administered by Franklin & Marshall were published. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 29 to August 2 among 389 likely voters. The error margin is +/-6.3 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 56.3% for Clinton and 43.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.1%. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is negligible.