Ohio: New CBS News/YouGov poll has Trump behind by 6 points
Results of a new poll administered by CBS News/YouGov were distributed. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often won similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 46.0% of participants are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 17 to August 19 with 997 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 points, which means that the poll results for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.8%. Relative to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.