CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
In Ohio, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 17 and August 19. The sample size was 997 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton is currently at 52.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. Relative to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.