New PPP (D) poll in Pennsylvania: Trump trails by a slim margin
Results of a new poll carried out by PPP (D) were released. The poll asked participants from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 29 to July 31. A total of 1505 likely voters responded. Given the poll's error margin of +/-2.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 3 percentage points higher. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.