New Big-issue index model: Clinton and Trump in a tossup
The Big-issue model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single index models can include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the recommended strategy rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.9%. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.