Latest Quinnipiac poll in Ohio: Trump trails by a narrow margin
By Results of a new poll administered by Quinnipiac were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Ohio for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the two major political parties have often gained similar levels of support among voters. Hence, the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees are going to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7. A total of 812 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.8%. In comparison to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio.
