Results of a new poll administered by Monmouth were released. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically won similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 18 to August 21, among a random sample of 402 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.9 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.8%. Compared to her numbers in the Monmouth poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.