Latest Keys to the White House index model: Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie
The Keys to the White House model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.5%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
Clinton can currently count on 53.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Keys to the White House index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.