Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump
The Jérôme & Jérôme model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton and Trump will each receive 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 1 percentage point better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% and Trump 46.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.