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Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead

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The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.0%. In comparison, on August 23 Trump was predicted to collect 47.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual index model. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.9%. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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