Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead
The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.0%. In comparison, on August 23 Trump was predicted to collect 47.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual index model. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.9%. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.