Issue-index model: Clinton with clear lead
The Issue-index model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 56.2% for Clinton, and 43.8% for Trump. In comparison, on August 23, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 55.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single index model. Instead of relying on results from single index models, we recommend to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other index models
Clinton currently achieves 54.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.