Fiscal model model: Trump is in the lead

The Fiscal model model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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