Fair model: Trump is in the lead

The Fair model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 9.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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