DeSart model: Trump with small lead
The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.1% for Clinton, and 51.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.