Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 52.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7, among a random sample of 815 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is insignificant.