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Clinton leads in Pennsylvania by 10 points in latest Quinnipiac poll


Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

Quinnipiac poll results




Of those who responded, 52.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7, among a random sample of 815 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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