Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest Lockerbie model

The Lockerbie model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 50.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.6%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. Compared to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 3.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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