538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead
The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.9%. In comparison, on August 23, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 52.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they can include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 49.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 3 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.