Primary model: Trump is in the lead

The Primary model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. Relative to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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