Tossup between Trump and Clinton in latest Vox.Com model

The Vox.Com model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 49.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 50.9%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. Relative to numbers in the Vox.Com model Trump's econometric model average is 0 percentage points worse.

The Vox.Com model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Vox.Com model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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