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Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new Time-for-change model

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The Time-for-change model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. Relative to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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