Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new Time-for-change model
The Time-for-change model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. Relative to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.