Suffolk University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Suffolk University poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between July 25 and July 27. The sample size was 500 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.4 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 55.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Suffolk University poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is negligible.