Pennsylvania: Comfortable lead for Clinton in recent Susquehanna poll
Susquehanna released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Susquehanna poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between July 31 and August 4. The sample size was 772 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 55.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Susquehanna poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.