Results of a new poll carried out by NBC-WSJ-Marist were published. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 3 to August 7. A total of 834 registered voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they often incorporate substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 56.5% for Clinton and 43.5% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton is currently at 55.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.