Ohio: New CBS News/YouGov poll shows Clinton with 6 points lead
By CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the GOP and the Democrats have historically gained similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of respondents indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 17 to August 19 with 997 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.8%. Compared to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is negligible.
