Leading indicators model: Clinton is in the lead

The Leading indicators model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.1%. Relative to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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