Latest Electoral-cycle model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied
The Electoral-cycle model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 4.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.