Issues and Leaders model: Trump trails by a small margin
The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 52.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.9%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single index models, one should rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.7 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.