Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issue-index model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 55.1% for Clinton, and 44.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single index models can contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to use combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Issue-index index model.

The Issue-index model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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