Fiscal model model: Trump with small lead

The Fiscal model model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 0.9 percentage points lower.

The Fiscal model model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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