Fair model: Trump with clear lead
The Fair model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 44.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 56.0%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 50.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.1 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 9.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.