DeSart model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.9%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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