DeSart model: Clinton trails by a small margin
The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.9%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.