Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.