Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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