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Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in latest Big-issue index model


The Big-issue model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results vs. other index models

Clinton is currently at 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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