Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in latest Big-issue index model
The Big-issue model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results vs. other index models
Clinton is currently at 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.