NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have often gained similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is considered crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 3 and August 7. The sample size was 889 registered voters. The error margin is +/-3.3 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 52.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 0.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.0 point below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.