Clinton leads in Ohio by 4 points in latest Monmouth poll
Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically won similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 43.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 21. A total of 402 likely voters responded. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-4.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio sees Clinton at 52.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.