Clinton and Trump virtually tied in new Lockerbie model

The Lockerbie model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.1%. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lockerbie model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 3.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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