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Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Keys to the White House index model


The Keys to the White House model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models often include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Results vs. other index models

Clinton can currently count on 53.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Clinton's index model average is 2.2 percentage points better.

The Keys to the White House model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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