In today's update, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will end up with 53.5% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.5% for Trump.
A look at Polly's component methods
There is a consensus currently dominating the three available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.
Index models predict a vote share of 53.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 58.0% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous week there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 14.3 percentage points.
With 53.7% in index models the vote share for the Democrats is particularly low in comparison to previous election years. This is the lowest value at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, index models expected a vote share of 53.3% for Democratic candidate Barack Obama, in the end he reached 53.7%.