Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome
As of today, Polly concludes that Clinton will achieve 53.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.5% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now in the lead by 50.9%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are index models with a vote share of 53.7% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 58.0% of the vote.
With 53.1% in aggregated polls the vote share for the Democrats is notably high when compared to previous election years. This is the highest value at that time in the campaign since 1996. At that time, combined polls expected a vote share of 55.3% for Democratic candidate.