538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.1%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 2.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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