Virtual tie between Trump and Clinton in latest Time-for-change model
The Time-for-change model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. Relative to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.