Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new Big-issue index model
The Big-issue model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be treated with caution, as they may contain substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. Compared to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.6 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.