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Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new Big-issue index model


The Big-issue model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be treated with caution, as they may contain substantial biases. Rather, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. Compared to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.6 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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