Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Time-for-change model
The Time-for-change model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Time-for-change model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.