Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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